Timeframe
2005–2009
Funding
Health Research Council of New Zealand
COMPASS staff
Peter Davis
Roy Lay-Yee
Janet Pearson
Martin von Randow
Sanat Pradhan
Collaborators
University of Auckland
David O’Sullivan
Description
This project established a microsimulation model of the New Zealand primary healthcare system in its social context, hence Primary Care in an Ageing Society (PCASO). The work aimed to test propositions about the functioning and development of the health system under different scenarios of demographic ageing – counterfactuals.
Data were combined from the:
- New Zealand Health Survey (NZHS 1996/7 & 2002/3);
- National Primary Medical Care Survey (NatMedCa 2001/2); and
- Australian National Health Survey (ANHS 1995).
Data matching techniques were employed to link doctors from NatMedCa with respondents to the NZHS, and national estimates of some variables from the ANHS were used to fill in gaps in the data available within New Zealand.
The analysis and scenarios investigated focused on three aspects:
- Demographic ageing and associated morbidity;
- Family and community capacity to cope; and
- Practitioner and system response.
Presentations
August 2008
PCASO – Primary Care in an Ageing Society: Developing a Microsimulation Model for Policy
Peter Davis, Janet Pearson, Martin von Randow, Sanat Pradhan – COMPASS Colloquium 2008, Wellington
Developing a Simulation Model of Health Care: A Computer-Based Probabilistic Expert System
Peter Davis, Janet Pearson, Martin von Randow, Sanat Pradhan, Roy Lay-Yee – Computer Science Seminar 2008, Auckland